FIPRA Network

FIPRA NETWORK DISCUSSES: HOW WILL BUSINESSES BE IMPACTED BY THE ELECTIONS IN 2024?

FIPRA Network organised the insightful webinar, "Adopting Corporate Narratives to a Nation-First World" on Tuesday, 30 July 2024 to discuss the implications of this year’s multiple crucial elections on business strategies. We welcomed leading public affairs experts, including:

The full webinar is available online and the below provides a recap of the discussion:

RHOD SHAW - UNITED STATES

Amidst unprecedented political developments in the US including the continuing rise of populism and significant political polarisation, Kamala Harris’ election bid is expected to energise the Democratic base, therefore making the upcoming elections on November 5th highly contested and leaving key swing states a decisive role in determining the election outcome. However, both Democrats and Republicans share concerns about big business and international entanglements, hinting a shift towards economic protectionism. Furthermore, both major parties are trending towards reshoring and the adoption of parties.

Corporate Strategy Impact

  • Prepare for potential changes in trade policies, including increased tariffs and a focus on domestic production,
  • Stay agile and ready to adapt to shifts in political power and policy directions
  • Engage with local and state governments to navigate evolving federal policies

ERIK JONNAERT - EUROPEAN UNION

The recent European Parliament elections saw a significant increase in voter turnout and notable gains for right-wing parties. The Christian Democrats remain the largest group, followed by the Socialists, but the political landscape is more fragmented. Three potential scenarios for the new Parliament include pragmatic coalitions, a unified response to external threats, and the risk of right-wing dominance challenging EU unity.

Corporate Strategy Impact

  • Monitor the formation of coalitions and the policy directions they take, especially regarding trade and regulatory measures,
  • Navigate a more complex regulatory environment with varying national policies within the EU,
  • Prepare for potential changes in trade policies, particularly in response to external pressures like US trade relations.

THAIMA SAMMAN - FRANCE

France is experiencing political turbulence with no clear majority in the National Assembly after the unexpected legislative elections. The rise of the far right Rassemblement National and the fragmented political landscape reflect deeper societal changes since Macron's election in 2017. Three possible scenarios for forming a new government include a weak coalition government, a government of experts/minority government, or a left coalition government, though the latter is unlikely.

Corporate Strategy Impact

  • Engage with civil servants and administration officials who continue to play a crucial role in policymaking,
  • Understand specific timelines and decision-making processes of the French government for effective advocacy and strategy,
  • Be flexible and ready to adapt to sudden political changes and potential new elections.

PAUL MCGRADE - UNITED KINGDOM

The Labour Party has won a significant majority in the recent elections, forming a new government after 14 years out of office. The new government faces constraints, particularly financial ones, and is focused on driving growth and investment. Labour aims to reset relations with the EU, but within the limits of not seeking to rejoin the Single Market or Customs Union.

Corporate Strategy Impact

  • Align strategies with the government's growth and investment priorities, emphasising job creation and economic contribution,
  • Engage early with the new government to influence the legislative agenda and regulatory changes,
  • Prepare for potential unilateral alignments with EU regulations in specific sectors for market access and competitiveness.

KEY TAKEAWAY FROM THE QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION: IMPACT OF US-CHINA RELATIONS

Both US political parties are united in their tough stance on China, focusing on tariffs, export controls, and reducing dependency on Chinese supply chains. The US-China trade relationship is expected to remain conflictual, with significant implications for global trade and economic policies.

Corporate Strategy Impact

  • European companies exporting to the US might face challenges due to potential new tariffs and trade restrictions imposed by a future US administration,
  • Consider diversifying supply chains and exploring "friend-shoring" options to reduce dependency on China and mitigate risks,
  • Engage in strategic partnerships and alliances within Europe and with other regions to provide more stability and resilience against the backdrop of US-China tensions,
  • Monitor developments in US export controls, especially in high-tech and semiconductor sectors, for companies involved in these industries.

Please feel free to contact any of our panellists for more information!

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