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FIPRA NETWORK DISCUSSES: PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE: WHO WON THE HARRIS VS. TRUMP CLASH?
The critical debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on September 10, 2024, marked the first since President Biden stepped down as the Democratic candidate, setting the stage for a high-stakes electoral battle. In light of this pivotal moment, the FIPRA Network organized an insightful webinar titled “Presidential Debate: Who won the Harris vs. Trump clash?” on Thursday, 12 September 2024. We delved into the debate's outcomes and explored the broader implications for the upcoming elections, highlighting the key policies and strategies that may shape the political landscape leading into November.
Moderated by Mélanie Richer, Communications and Public Affairs Principal at Earnscliffe Strategies (FIPRA Canada), we welcomed Rhod Shaw from the Alpine Group (FIPRA United States), a leading public affairs expert in US politics with extensive government experience.
The full webinar is available online and the below provides a recap of the discussion:
- Bipartisan dynamics and commonalities: Despite the divisiveness in US politics, there are significant areas of bipartisan agreement that often go unnoticed. One such area is the shared anti-China sentiment, with both parties displaying a strong stance against China in terms of trade and policy. This bipartisan alignment is evidenced by the work of the House of Representatives' Select Committee on China, which includes members from both parties who focus on common concerns and solutions related to China, such as tariffs. Shaw noted that tariffs, once controversial, have now become an accepted policy tool across the political spectrum.
- Cultural vs. economic focus: Shaw suggested that the current election cycle is more culturally driven than economically driven, a shift from past elections where economic issues typically dominated. Economic concerns, at this election cycle, are expressed through cultural lenses, such as immigration, home affordability, and tech insecurities related to AI and job displacement – as reflected in both candidates’ focuses during the debate. The blend of economic and cultural issues reflects a broader voter sentiment where personal and societal insecurities influence political alignment.
- Policy similarities and divergences: The debate underscored both the policy differences and similarities between Harris and Trump. While the stark divisions on issues like immigration and abortion were evident, Shaw emphasised that areas such as economic protectionism and concerns over home affordability have generated bipartisan acknowledgment. He predicted that home affordability would become a significant focus in 2025, with both parties needing to address the concerns of younger voters struggling to enter the housing market amid rising interest rates and economic uncertainty.
- Electoral implications: Analysing the performances in the debate, Shaw observed that Trump’s established base appears solid, with little fluctuation in voter support. In contrast, Harris, who has a wider variance in voter perception, performed well enough to potentially increase her appeal among undecided and Democratic voters. A notable takeaway from the debate was the substantial increase in viewership compared to previous debates, suggesting a re-energised Democratic base. Shaw speculated that this could translate into significant electoral momentum, particularly in battleground states where even marginal shifts in voter turnout could prove decisive.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR IN THE NEAR FUTURE?
- The importance of key voter demographics: Shaw identified critical voter demographics and locations, such as suburban areas in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and communities in Dearborn, Michigan, as potential indicators of the election outcome. He stressed that shifts in voter turnout and engagement in these areas could significantly impact the overall results, given the historically narrow margins that have decided recent elections.
- Impact of tax policy and economic decisions: Shaw noted the looming "tax cliff" in 2025, where critical decisions on corporate and individual tax rates will need to be made. He noted that both parties have differing agendas, but the outcome of these decisions will have long-term implications for businesses across the board. Shaw emphasised the importance for companies to stay engaged and informed, as changes in tax policy will affect all sectors.
- Advocacy in a volatile political environment: For those seeking to engage with policymakers during this interim period, Shaw recommended focusing on integrity and substance. The core advice was that businesses should present issues that are politically valuable to legislators, highlighting local impacts and providing practical solutions. Additionally, the suggestion Shaw made was that companies leverage media and social platforms to support their advocacy efforts, helping to amplify their messages and align with policymakers' priorities.
Please feel free to contact any of our panellists for more information!
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