Brazil elections: A return to the old way of doing politics?

In early February, the two houses of the National Congress elected their chairmen for the next two years. Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-Minas Gerais) won in the Senate and Representative Arthur Lira (PP-Alagoas) in the Chamber, with an expressive advantage in the number of votes. 

Here is a brief analysis of the recent elections at the Brazilian National Congress, and a notion of what to expect in the months to come.

• Elections not just symbolic

The chairman of the National Congress controls the agenda of the House and this influences strategic interests when there are hundreds of bills in the tubes. The chairman of the Lower House is also the one who decides whether to proceed or not with requests of impeachment; and, with more than 60 requests filed against the current president since his inauguration in January 2019, the position takes on an even greater dimension.

Brazil has a record position among countries willing to use impeachments. In the last 28 years, three presidents have undergone impeachment processes, and two have been removed from office through such processes.

• Fierce electoral process, short campaign…

…especially in the Chamber, where moods tend to be more confrontational and the weight of the parties greater. Yet, the campaign was short, which might limit resentment and collateral damage. Actually, at the party organized to celebrate the victory of the elected chairmen, several congressmen who voted for other candidates were very welcome. The expectation, therefore, is that the support base for the elected chairmen will, initially, be even greater than the votes received by them. 

• Economic issues a priority

In both Houses, economic issues should remain the priority, in line with the profiles of the elected chairmen and the current situation. This perspective was confirmed after the first public statements by the new chairmen. This could facilitate the passing of the reforms endorsed by the government, in particular the tax reform, about which the National Congress has never shown great interest, and which has been successively postponed and finally put aside due to the pandemic, but is much awaited by the business community. 

• The actual winner of these elections is…

… thus, President Jair Bolsonaro. The head of the executive branch made his preferences clear, and he made political efforts to get his candidates elected. Bolsonaro brought institutional peace and tranquility after two years of great tensions with Congress. 

Such open interference of the executive branch in the Congress is a Brazilian tradition, an aspect of the presidential system. That was the case in the governments of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Itamar Franco, and José Sarney. Presidents who did not interfere, nor were able to control the National Congress, paid the price of impeachment: Fernando Collor de Mello and Dilma Rousseff. 

• Old way of doing politics (so-called “Velha Política”)

In the old way of doing politics (the so-called “Velha Política”), the government and the National Congress agreed on the critical points behind the closed doors of the cabinets, so that when the bills arrived at Congress, there was no debate and they could be approved reasonably quickly and without crisis. 

The current government was elected in 2018 with the promise of doing politics differently, giving the National Congress more autonomy and prominence in the discussion and approval of bills and public policies. Following this line, the executive branch did not seek to influence the election of Rodrigo Maia in the Chamber of Davi Alcolumbre in the Senate in 2019. This is also the reason why the pension reform, for example, could be widely discussed, substantially amended by Congress, and finally approved. 

• New way of doing politics (so-called “Nova Política”)

This strategy rapidly eroded until it reached a situation of open conflict and developed an impasse between the two branches of power. This situation may have resulted from a combination of lack of preparation, lack of will, lack of interest on the part of the members of the legislature, or pressure from the media and the 2020 municipal elections. In this context, these elections seem to symbolize the end of this attempt to do politics differently (the so-called “Nova Política”). A brutal return to congressional control by the executive branch, to save the government program for which he was elected in 2018. 

• Two possible paths ahead

The first one is a more harmonious relationship between the executive branch and the National Congress. With the National Congress under control the executive branch, through a composition of the interests of the various parties and politicians, can carry out the structural reforms it seeks: tax, economic and administrative. To this end, the fact that President Bolsonaro is momentary without a party can be an advantage, as he will have more freedom to negotiate, without being tied to the specific interests of a given party. 

The second one is less rosy. With a fragmented national representation, health and economic crisis, and a high polarization of political discourse, the good relationship between the executive branch and the National Congress may be short-lived. In this case, the fact that President Jair Bolsonaro is without a party means that he has no organized support base in Congress. Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco are pressured by their peers, and except with strict control of the Congress along the lines of the old way of doing politics, President Jair Bolsonaro will soon be in an unstable situation. 

• It’s now or never

Which of the two paths will Brazil take? The window of opportunity is really short because in October 2022 there will be elections for the President of the Republic, for the National Congress, and the governors and state legislative assemblies. In other words, everything that matters needs to be approved by December 15, 2021. If the consensus is built in the next three or four months, Brazil will go the first way. If not, the country will fall again along the second path. 

There is an interesting question about these elections: what is the reason for 302 representatives and 57 senators to vote for the candidates of the executive branch? Some certainly for cronyism, but not all, not even the majority. Others certainly had an eye on the surprisingly high popularity of President Jair Bolsonaro, in the perspective of the 2022 presidential elections.

Against the negative campaign of the traditional media (which was much more tolerant towards Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in their first two years in office), President Jair Bolsonaro and the executive branch continue to show unexpected popularity. His approval rate (38% in December 2020, among those who consider his performance to be very good or good) is practically the same as at the beginning of his term in January 2019 (40%).

(Written by José Gabriel Assis de Almeida and Mickael Viglino)