Mexican midterm elections: political stability in sight?

In early June, Mexicans elected 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 15 governors, 1,926 mayors, and 30 state legislatures, in what has been called the largest election in the nation’s history.

This was believed to serve as a referendum on President Lopez Obrador’s performance halfway through his presidency; the results would set the course for his remaining three years in office. 

Mexico as a whole won that day, with a voter turnout of around 52%, and an impeccable organization by the autonomous electoral authorities, the elections allowed all political forces to win something.

On the one hand, President Lopez Obrador’s MORENA (ruling party) and its allies ended up winning 11 out of 15 governorships; thus now governing 17 of the 32 states. On the other hand, the opposition coalition Va x Mexico established by PAN, PRI and PRD, managed to take back 58 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, obliging MORENA to rely on its allies in order to reach an absolute majority in the lower chamber.

Finally, in Mexico City, the opposition coalition won over half of the municipalities, in what used to be a strong base for the President’s party.

These results appear to be positive for bolstering the country’s democracy by bringing forth a more pronounced separation of power, which may lead to increased political stability. With the new composition, the President’s party will face a complicated scenario. MORENA will need to negotiate legal reforms with its allies and any Constitutional amendments would have to be negotiated with the opposition parties. 

The President has already laid out three Constitutional amendments for his next three years in office, these are yet to be presented formally but he has detailed some of their content. First, a reform to the energy sector, which seeks to strengthen and favor state companies over private investors in the electricity market.

Second, an electoral reform, which would reduce administrative costs during elections and make the system “more democratic,” as well as renew the current advisors of the National Electoral Institute. Third, a National Security reform, which would have the National Guard absorbed into the Defense Ministry. 

Yet, since MORENA’s ruling coalition fell short of achieving a majority, the party will be forced to negotiate these thoroughly with opposition rivals.

Two days after the election, Vice President Kamala Harris visited Mexico to meet with President Lopez Obrador, the main topics on the agenda included migration and border control, as well as development in the region. The trip suggests the Biden administration is prioritizing an active approach to promote stability in Northern Triangle Countries (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) and Mexico may benefit from these efforts. 

Political stability brings a unique opportunity for Mexico, and may enable it to take  advantage of its geographical location, attracting investments looking to relocate close to the United States.

Becoming a true partner of the US will require Mexico to continue in the path of respecting the rule of law and democratic institutions, promoting human rights, securing free press, and allowing watchdogs to operate with freedom.

The result of the June election is definitely a step in that direction.