FIPRA Network
View from Brazil: Biden’s victory casts doubts on future of Brazil-U.S. ties
The United States of America is Brazil’s second-largest trading partner – behind China – and a clear priority for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. The officialization of Joe Biden’s victory casts doubt on the future of the Brazil-U.S. relationship, as Bolsonaro’s strategy has been to create a personal relationship with Donald Trump, based on a similar agenda.
Since Bolsonaro took office in January 2019, the parallels with the U.S. and Donald Trump have been increasingly visible:
- a strong polarization of politics as well as among the population, with an upsurge in social and political conservatism and the growing importance of the evangelical vote;
- accusations of demagoguery;
- critics of global warming and challenge to environmental regulations;
- a mistrust of China;
- an excessive use of social networks as a means of direct communication between the president and voters, to avoid mainstream news media outlets.
Bolsonaro is regularly accused by his opponents of mimicking his North American counterpart to build up credibility vis-à-vis his electorate. The US presidential campaign has shown that this influence can work both ways, as Trump has been steadily questioning the integrity of the electoral process in recent weeks, just as Bolsonaro did during the 2018 presidential campaign, warning that he would not recognize the results of the elections if he did not emerge victorious.
Politically, a victory of Trump would certainly have been an easier outcome for Brazil. The country’s foreign policy is essentially aligned with the U.S., and Bolsonaro has been openly distancing himself from both China and the E.U., isolating Brazil from its main economic partners.
Politically, a victory of Trump would certainly have been an easier outcome for Brazil. The country’s foreign policy is essentially aligned with the U.S., and Bolsonaro has been openly distancing himself from both China and the E.U., isolating Brazil from its main economic partners.
– José Gabriel Assis de Almeida
Bolsonaro made public his preference for the Republican candidate and has still not officially acknowledged Joe Biden’s victory. On October 20, welcoming a delegation headed by U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, he said he hoped for Donald Trump’s victory, stating: “I don’t have to hide it, it’s from the heart.”
Brazil may face animosities and ill will on the part of the new U.S. Administration, and Bolsonaro will be pressured internally to change the orientation of foreign policy, leaving aside the strong ideological component and seeking to maintain an agenda based on commercial interests.
Economically, Brazilian exporters are more pragmatic and had identified difficulties and opportunities whatever the outcome of the elections. If Trump has been a great support to Jair Bolsonaro for environmental matters (in particular, the situation in the Amazon forest), Brazil’s complete alignment with the U.S. has not shown significant results in terms of access of Brazilian products to the North American market. The unpredictability of Trump’s trade policy has also been a major concern (recent aluminum surcharges and reductions in steel import quotas).
Biden is expected to bring more predictability and may be easier to talk to, despite the differences of styles and ideologies. He will, however, certainly follow the E.U. and increase environmental pressure over Brazil, which could be detrimental to Brazilian exports to the U.S. and to the negotiation of new free trade agreements.
– José Gabriel Assis de Almeida
In this sense, Biden is expected to bring more predictability and may be easier to talk to, despite the differences of styles and ideologies. He will, however, certainly follow the E.U. and increase environmental pressure over Brazil, which could be detrimental to Brazilian exports to the U.S. and to the negotiation of new free trade agreements.
In the campaign’s first debate, Biden threatened Brazil with “significant economic consequences” for the destruction of the Amazon forest — words Bolsonaro qualified as “regrettable”.
Still, the expectation is that the change of resident at the White House should not seriously compromise relations between the two countries, like the coexistence of ex-presidents George W. Bush and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the 2000s.
Biden will certainly seek a pragmatic relationship with Brazil due to commercial and geopolitical interests: the US has increasing surplus trade with Brazil while both aim to reduce China’s influence in the global arena, particularly with regard to 5G.
Biden will certainly seek a pragmatic relationship with Brazil due to commercial and geopolitical interests: the US has increasing surplus trade with Brazil while both aim to reduce China’s influence in the global arena, particularly with regard to 5G.
– José Gabriel Assis de Almeida
Bolsonaro does not have a sufficient majority in Congress to favor ideological orientations over commercial interests, and his alignment with the Trump administration is not so clear among the population.
A survey realized by Ipsos in the U.S. and 24 other countries between September 25 and October 9 showed that 39% of the Brazilians surveyed would have voted for Biden, and only 20% for Trump (the average in the 24 countries is 48% and 17%, respectively).
FIPRA Brazil / JG Assis de Almeida & Associados
JG Assis de Almeida & Associados have in-depth understanding of the Brazilian decision-making process at local, state and national levels. Click here to learn out how their team advises sectors of Brazilian economy such as aviation, general transportation, energy, finance and pharmaceuticals.
